Fundamental Analysis - Commodity Market Conditions

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Click on the charts below to enlarge it. While still holding a long term bias to the upside for this market, we had been cautioning against the more recent steep move up as market action that is potentially unsustainable. We had been targeting the and the round numbers as potential areas where major selling could come in to the market following the sharp bullish activity.

However, the market actually pulled back this week just shy of the level, marking a much needed pullback into the long term up trend. While the current bearish momentum looks strong, we have no reason to believe this market could have topped out or we are witnessing a full-fledged reversal. We continue to look at this bearish run as a mere pullback and continue to hold a long term bias to the upside for this market.

We suspect the market could potentially bounce back up around the level, if price holds at the minor former resistance at this price level as support. Light crude oil futures market for the week failed to post a new weekly high as the market consolidated around the long term horizontal support and resistance level at Despite the current weakness, we expect the uptrend to continue to grind forward towards the more critical support and resistance levels higher up near the 71 level and subsequently at the 75 level marked on the chart above.

While we are seeing resistance at current price levels, we suspect a move down may well be blocked by the highs around Gold commodity futures for the week pulled back this former week after temporarily testing the recent major swing high at the price level.

While we saw prices higher than the prior swing high, we had cautioned last week that the weak close on the breakout candlestick holds little authenticity in terms of a true breakout signal, and that the market may potentially still find major resistance around the swing high at We saw major evidence of that resistance this past week, as price pulled back down from the swing high, indicating a likely bounce off the resistance level. If price continues with the downward momentum we expect this market to hit the major support and reistance level that falls in confluence with the major round number.

Given the strong resistance we are seeing at current price levels, we believe the likelihood of this market hitting the round number is relatively strong. For the short term we have a downward bias for this market. For the longer term this market seems to be continue consolidating in wide price ranges.

Euro currency futures for the week failed to post a new high as the market consolidated following a rather bearish hammer pattern that was posted the week prior to last one amidst resistance at the 1. We had cautioned last week that although the bearish hammer pattern looks authoritative long wick on the candlestick the more dominant bullish momentum could post higher price levels for this market again.

While we did not see any major buying come into the market this past week, the lack of bearish activity following the strong looking bearish hammer pattern appears to be a win for the bulls anyway. We suspect this market may continue to drag higher as the market nears more important longer term horizontal support and resistance levels at 1. The 10 year US Bonds futures market over the past week posted significant bearish activity reminiscent of a breakout from the all-important support zone at the Last week we had talked about some textbook technical developments on this market as price had broken under the This week we had further bearish developments as the market eases into a more sustained down trend.

However we do note that this market could potentially find support at subsequent price levels given that current price levels correspond to a former consolidation box posted at current price levels back in If the market continues to build on the bearish momentum, we could well see price levels near the lower end of the consolidation box — also a major former swing low that could prove as a solid support level for price.

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Optimus Futures is a leading online futures broker that caters to traders seeking fast execution and stable data feeds combined with aggressive margins and deep discount commissions.

About Optimus Futures Optimus Futures is a leading online futures broker that caters to traders seeking fast execution and stable data feeds combined with aggressive margins and deep discount commissions.

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Click on the charts below to enlarge it. We do not expect the market to be topping out just yet or reversing the long term up trend, but we do believe this market is due for a major correction, and the recent sharp spike to the upside could well be laying the foundations for it.

Light crude oil futures market for the week continued with the bullish momentum creating a new high for the week as the market inches closer to the 70 round number.

Following the breakout from the We see little major trouble areas for price before the As price once again nears this area, we suspect that former support may flip into resistance allowing for some threatening selling activity to come into the market. For the short to mid-term we continue to hold an upward bias for this market until we see major signs of trend exhaustion or major bouts of selling. Gold commodity futures for the week traded at interesting levels as price tested the region above the more recent swing high near the level.

While we note that price was able to push past the recent swing high this week, we do not yet look at the move as a breakout as price was unable to sustain it and closed rather weak and bearish for the week — possibly indicating some resistance at the level. Notably, we are also expecting some resistance to come in at the slightly higher level that lines up with older swing highs and could potentially cause trouble for price.

Major selling coming in at this point could take prices much lower than current levels, while a strong break to the upside could allow price to use this resistance as a support launch pad to aim for higher price levels.

Euro currency futures for the week posted a new high although we did see some selling come into the market as price tried to breach the support and resistance at the 1. However judging from the bullish momentum that saw price push past the crucial 1. The 10 year US Bonds futures market over the past week posted some important price action, as the breakout below crucial former support was tested as proven resistance allowing prices to trickle down further — also allowing for a new fresh low for the week.

Although we witnessed former support prove its role as fresh resistance for price this week, we are yet to see a strong sustained move away from the present support levels as an authentic indication of sustained bearish momentum. Notably, while we may appear to be past the important recent dual swing lows, we are still trading within a broader long term support zone that could trigger some buying to come into the market at these lows.

While we are positive about the recent move down for this market, we are nevertheless cautious of potential buying to come into the market. Although we would not be surprised to see price push further down below the broader support zone, eventually using it as solid resistance to restrict buying — allowing prices to dip further down. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Optimus Futures is a leading online futures broker that caters to traders seeking fast execution and stable data feeds combined with aggressive margins and deep discount commissions. About Optimus Futures Optimus Futures is a leading online futures broker that caters to traders seeking fast execution and stable data feeds combined with aggressive margins and deep discount commissions.